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September 13, 2016

U.S. Crop Conditions Hold Steady (Again)

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Corn - The condition of the 2016 U.S. corn crop held steady last week at 74% rated good to excellent. Six states indicated that the corn condition improved last week, 8 states indicated that the corn condition declined last week, and 4 states indicated no change. Most of the improvements were found in the northern and western Corn Belt while most of the declines were found in the eastern Corn Belt. The top five rated corn states are: Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, and North Dakota. The five lowest rated corn states are: Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Texas, and Michigan.

The 2016 U.S. corn condition has been remarkably stable this growing season. Going forward, I do not expect the corn condition to change very much and I will only plot the conditions for another week. The corn is already 33% mature and by next week it will be approaching 50% mature, so the crop ratings after that point do not mean very much.

Soybeans - The condition of the 2016 U.S. soybean crop held steady last week at 73% rated good to excellent. Eight states indicated that the soybean condition improved last week, 7 states indicated that the soybean condition declined last week, and 3 states indicated no change. There did not seem to be a discernable pattern to the changes this week. The top five rated soybean states are: Wisconsin, Iowa, Tennessee, Minnesota, and Illinois. The five lowest rated corn states are: Louisiana, Arkansas, Ohio, South Dakota, and North Carolina.

The 2016 U.S. soybean condition has been on a slightly upward trend for the last several weeks. I think this bodes well for the soybean yields, which was confirmed by the increased yield estimate in the September Crop Report.

Soil Moisture - The nation's topsoil moisture improved last week with 12 states indicating that the soil moisture improved last week and 6 states indicated that the soil moisture declined last week. Most of the improvements were found in throughout the Corn Belt while most of the declines were found in the mid-South and Delta. The five states with the best soil moisture are: Minnesota, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana. The five states with the lowest soil moisture are: Tennessee, Mississippi, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Ohio.

Heavy rains last week resulted in another improvement in soil moisture. The best soil moisture of the year has been during August and early September, which is particularly helpful for the soybean crop.

2016 U.S. State Rankings
CornSoybeans
Weeks in Top FiveWeeks in Bottom FiveWeeks in Top FiveWeeks in Bottom Five
Wisconsin15Ohio13Wisconsin15Arkansas15
Minnesota15S. Dakota13Iowa15Michigan12
Iowa13Michigan13Minnesota14Kansas11
Colorado12Penn.10Tennessee14S. Dakota11
Illinois9Texas10Illinois8Ohio8
N. Dakota6Kansas7Nebraska6Missouri7
Tennessee3Missouri4N. Dakota2N. Carolina4
Nebraska3N. Carolina3Kentucky2Louisiana4
Penn.2Kentucky2S. Dakota1Mississippi3
Missouri1Indiana2  Kentucky1
      Illinois1