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November 16, 2017

Mato Grosso's Corn Production could decline 4 mt in 2017/18

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their first assessment of the 2017/18 corn production in the state of Mato Grosso, which was released this past Monday, the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) is forecasting that the corn acreage and the corn yield will both decline from last year's levels.

The 2017/18 corn production in the state is estimated at 24.7 million tons, which would be down 18% from 2016/17 or 4 million tons less.

All the corn produced in the state is safrinha production, which is planted after the first crop of soybeans are harvested. Imea is estimating that the corn acreage will decline 10.3% to 4.25 million hectares (14.7 million acres). The rational cited for the lower corn acreage was low prices for corn in the state and the high cost of production. As an additional reason for the reduced corn acreage, they also cited the delay in getting the soybeans planted, which in turn could delay the safrinha corn planting.

The anticipated statewide corn yield is also expected to decline from last year. Imea is estimating that the 2017/18 corn yield will be 97.0 sacks per hectare (89.6 bu/ac) or down 9.3% from last year. They are estimating that 30% of the safrinha corn will be planted after the ideal planting window closes about the third week of February. They also are forecasting that farmers will reduce their investment in the crop (seed, fertilizers, chemicals) due to the low prices.

They feel corn yields in central Mato Grosso, which is the largest producing region, will decline 9% to 99 sacks per hectare (91.4 bu/ac). The driest part of the state is the southeastern region where the soybean planting has been the most delayed. The delayed soybean planting in turn, will delay the corn planting and Imea is estimating that the corn yields in southeastern Mato Grosso will decline 12.6% to 95 sacks per hectare (87.7 bu/ac).