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May 11, 2018

Conab Increases Brazilian 2017/18 Soybean and Corn Estimates

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their latest monthly report, Conab increased their estimate for the 2017/18 Brazilian soybean crop by 2.0 million tons to 116.9 million and they increased the 2017/18 Brazilian corn estimate by 0.59 million tons to 89.2 million tons.

The 2017/18 Brazilian soybean estimate was increased 2.0 million tons to a new record of 116.9 million tons based on the strength of record soybean production in northeastern Brazil. The weather in northeastern Brazil during the growing season was ideal and farmers are reporting record yields. As a result, the soybean production in northeastern Brazil now accounts for approximately 11% of Brazil's total soybean production.

The 2017/18 Brazilian nationwide soybean acreage was unchanged this month at 35.099 million hectares (86.69 million acres), which is up 3.5% from last year. The nationwide soybean yield is estimated at 3,333 kg/ha (49.3 bu/ac), which is down 0.9% from last year.

Total Brazilian corn production was increased 0.59 million tons to 89.2 million tons. The full-season corn production was increased 0.65 million tons to 26.2 million based on improved yields, while the safrinha corn production was trimmed 0.07 million tons to 62.9 million based on slightly lower corn yields.

In the report's commentary, Conab referenced the dry weather in southern Brazil and they indicated that the safrinha corn yield could decline if additional rainfall is not forthcoming. The safrinha corn production in Mato Grosso is estimated at 26.5 million tons, which is down 7.4% from last year. The corn yield in Mato Grosso is estimated at 5,928 kg/ha (91.2 bu/ac), which is unchanged from April.

The safrinha corn production in Parana is estimated at 11.5 million tons, which is down 11.9% from last year. The corn yield in Parana is now estimated at 5,393 kg/ha (83.0 bu/ac), which is down only 0.4 bu/ac from April in spite of the entire month of April being dry!

In Mato Grosso do Sul, the corn yield is estimated at 5,260 kg/ha (81.0 bu/ac), which is down only 1.3 bu/ac from April. In Goias, the corn yield is estimated at 6,000 kg/ha (92.4 bu/ac), which is unchanged from April. In Sao Paulo the corn yield is estimated at 5,100 kg/ha (78.5 bu/ac), which is unchanged from April. In Minas Gerais, the corn yield is estimated at 5,791 kg/ha (89.1 bu/ac), which is up 0.6 bu/ac from April.

The weather across all the safrinha corn area of central and southern Brazil has been dry since the survey for this report was conducted. The timing of the survey may have been too early to fully assess the impact of the dry weather. Therefore, it is anticipated that the 2017/18 Brazilian corn estimate could decline in subsequent reports.