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June 5, 2018

Analyst Lower their 2017/18 Brazilian Corn Estimates

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The weather in southern Brazil was cold once again this past weekend with reports of scattered frost especially at the higher elevations. I think the safrinha corn escaped the frost once again, but even though it did not frost, the cold weather was not good for the late developing crop. The rainfall in southern Brazil during April was very low with some areas going 40 days without a rain. The rainfall remained much below normal during May as well. When they finally did receive some rain in western Parana in mid-May, it was accompanied by strong winds that resulted in a lot of lodging of the corn crop.

Wet weather has now moved into southern Brazil, which will probably delay some of the early corn harvest.

The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) reported last Friday that 0.8% of the safrinha corn had been harvested compared to 3% last year. The corn harvest is a little more than 1% complete in central and southeastern Mato Grosso with other regions of the state just barely getting started. I have not seen any corn yield reports from Mato Grosso as yet.

I am anticipating that the first corn yields will be the best corn yields in Mato Grosso. The first corn to be harvested was also the first corn planted especially in western Mato Grosso and in central Mato Grosso. The early planted corn got ahead of the dry weather which started to take hold in the state during late April and early May.

In Parana, the safrinha corn is 1% harvested, which is the same as last year and the average. The Department of Rural Economics (Deral) is currently rating the safrinha corn as 20% poor, 45% average, and 35% good. The corn in Parana is 2% vegetative development, 23% pollinating, 67% filling grain, and 6% mature. I have not yet seen any corn yields out of Parana as well.

Even though the safrinha corn harvest has yet to get underway in Brazil, that has not stopped analysts from continuingly lowering their estimates for the 2017/18 Brazilian corn crop.

INTL FCStone lowered their estimate of the Brazilian corn crop last week to 78.4 million tons. They are now estimating the safrinha corn production at 55.3 million tons, which is down about 5 million tons from their May estimate of 60.5 million. They now estimate that the safrinha corn production will be down 17.8% from last year's crop.

A week ago, Safras & Mercado lowered their estimate of the safrinha corn production to 48.7 million tons and the total 2017/18 Brazilian corn crop was lowered to 79 million tons.

AgRural lowered their estimate of the safrinha corn crop last week to 53.3 million tons (down 16% from last year) and they lowered their estimate of the 2017/18 Brazilian corn crop to 83.7 million tons (down 15% compared to last year).

Conab will release their next estimate on June 12th. They are currently estimating the safrinha corn crop at 62.9 million tons and the total 2017/18 Brazilian corn production at 89.2 million tons. They have the highest corn estimate in Brazil.