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June 29, 2016

2016 U.S. Crop Conditions - Corn Steady, Soybeans down Slightly

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Corn - The condition of the 2016 U.S. corn crop held steady last week at 75% rated good to excellent. Five states indicated that the crop condition had improved last week, 11 states indicated that the condition had declined, and 2 states indicated no change. Most of the improvements were found in the eastern Corn Belt and the northern Corn Belt while most of the declines were found in the central and western Corn Belt. The five states with the highest rated corn are: Wisconsin, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska. The five states with the lowest rated corn are: Missouri, Kansas, Michigan, North Carolina, and Ohio.

The percentage of the corn rated good to excellent held steady this week, but on a weighted average by state, there is a slight tendency downward. The condition of the crop is still better than last year and the long-term average. I think the corn condition has been "defying gravity" for the last two weeks and I do expect the dryer conditions to start resulting in declining conditions.

Soybeans - The condition of the 2016 U.S. soybean crop declined 1% last week to 72% rated good to excellent. Five states indicated that the soybean condition had improved last week, 10 states indicated that the condition had declined last week, and 3 states indicated no change. Most of the improvements were found in the eastern Corn Belt and southern Corn Belt while most of the declines were found in the central and western Corn Belt. The five states with the highest rated soybeans are: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, Kentucky, and Iowa. The five states with the lowest rated soybeans are: Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas, Michigan, and North Carolina.

The percentage of the soybean crop rated good to excellent is in a slightly downward mode, but the crop is still rated better than last year and the long-term average. As with the corn, I think the dryer conditions will start to result in declining crop conditions.

Soil Moisture - The nation's topsoil continued to get dryer last week with 3 states indicating that the soil got wetter last week and 14 states indicating that the soil got dryer last week. The wetter soils were found in Indiana, Ohio, and Missouri while all the other states got dryer. The five states with the highest soil moisture are: Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, Kentucky, and Louisiana. The five states with the lowest soil moisture are: Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee.

As expected, the nation's topsoil dried out some more last week. Looking at the forecast for this week, I think the soil moisture will decline again next Monday. Dryer soils are almost always a precursor to a drop in crop conditions. I am surprised the condition of the corn and soybeans are as good as they are and I do expect the conditions to start declining.