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June 28, 2018

Agroconsult lowers Brazilian Corn Estimate

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

After sending out three teams of technicians that collected 405 samples of safrinha corn from the states of Mato Grosso, Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Parana, Agroconsult lowered their estimates for the safrinha corn production as well as lowering Brazil's total corn production. They are now estimating the 2017/18 safrinha corn production at 55.2 million tons, which is down 19% from the 68.3 million tons produced in 2016/17. Brazil's total corn production in 2017/18 is now estimated at 82.0 million tons, which is down 17% from the 99 million tons produced in 2016/17.

The safrinha corn production in Brazil suffered from four factors in 2017/18 including: reduced acreage due to delayed planting and low corn prices, delayed planting past the ideal planting window, reduced investments due to low corn prices, and an extended period of dry weather in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul during April and early May.

The most severely impacted safrinha corn was in southern Brazil. In the state of Parana, the safrinha corn acreage was down due to the delayed soybean harvest that convinced some farmers to opt for wheat or oats instead of safrinha corn. The latest planted corn was most impacted by over 40 days without rain especially in the northern part of the state. The dry weather was broken by severe storms and strong winds that resulted in a lot of corn being blown down across northern Parana. Estimated yields in Parana are 66 sacks per hectare in 2017/18(60.9 bu/ac) compared to 90.9 sacks per hectare in 2016/17 (84.0 bu/ac). Total corn production in the state is estimated at 8.5 million tons, down 36% from a year earlier.

In Mato Grosso do Sul, the corn planted after February 20 was most impacted by 40 days of dry weather in the southern part of the state. Average corn yields in the state is estimated at 63.5 sacks per hectare (58.6 bu/ac) compared to 91 sacks per hectare in 2016/17 (84.0 bu/ac). Total production in the state is estimated at 6.5 million tons, down 33% from last year.

The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso and Goias also suffered impacts from the dry weather, but the impact was not as severe as it was in southern Brazil. The Mato Grosso yield is estimated at 99.0 sacks per hectare (91.4 bu/ac) compared to 108.6 sacks per hectare last year (100.3 bu/ac). The total corn production in Mato Grosso is estimated at 26.6 million tons, down 10% from last year.

In Goias, most of the corn was planted during ideal window, but dry weather also hurt the yields. The corn yield in Goias is estimated at 88.0 sacks per hectare (81.3 bu/ac) compared to 100.0 sacks per hectare last year (92.4 bu/ac). The total corn production in the state is estimated at 6.5 million tons, down 14% from last year.

Agroconsult now estimates Brazil's total corn production at 82 million tons, down 17% from 99 million tons last year