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July 13, 2017

Brazil 2016/17 Corn Estimate now 96.0 mt, up 2.1 Million from June

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their July Crop Report, Conab increased the 2016/17 Brazilian corn estimate by 2.1 million tons to 96.0 million tons. The crop is now 44% larger than last year's 66.5 million ton production or an increase of 29.5 million tons.

The full-season corn estimate was left unchanged from last month at 30.3 million tons which is 18% larger than last year's production of 25.7 million tons.

The big change in this month's report was the increase in the safrinha corn estimate. The safrinha corn crop is now estimated at 65.6 million tons or 2.1 million tons more than last month. The safrinha corn estimate is now 61% more than last year's production of 40.7 million tons or an increase of 24.8 million tons.

Safrinha corn acreage is estimated at 11.8 million hectares, which is unchanged from last month, but up 12.3% compared to last year. The safrinha corn yield is now estimated at 5,533 kg/ha (85.2 bu/ac) which is 2.5 bu/ac more than last month's yield estimate. The 2016/17 safrinha corn yield is 43.4% larger than last year's corn yield that was impacted by hot and dry weather.

The safrinha corn crop now represents 68% of Brazil's total corn production. According to AgRural, the safrinha corn harvest in Brazil is 23% complete compared to 30% last year and 24% average. Farmers in Mato Grosso have harvested 44% of their safrinha corn while farmers in Parana have harvested only 6% if their safrinha corn.