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July 11, 2018

Conab lowers Brazil's Safrinha Corn Estimate 2.2 mt in July Report

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Conab released their July Crop Report yesterday (July 10th) and in that report, they reduced their estimate of the 2017/18 Brazilian corn crop by 2.0 million tons from their last estimate to 82.9 million tons. The 2017/18 Brazilian corn crop is now estimated at 14.9 million tons less than the 97.8 million tons produced in 2016/17. The main reason for the decline was a lower estimate for the safrinha corn crop.

Conab is now estimating the 2017/18 safrinha corn crop at 56.0 million tons, which is down 2.2 million tons from last month and 11.3 million tons lower than last year. A prolonged period of more than 40 days dry weather during April and early May in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul had a negative impact on the crop.

The safrinha corn crop in Parana, which is the second largest producing state, is now estimated at 9.1 million tons, which is down 30% from last year's crop. The safrinha corn crop in Parana is less than 5% harvested, which is slower than the average harvest pace. In Mato Grosso the Sul, the safrinha corn crop is now estimated at 6.8 million tons, which is down 28% from last year.

The state of Mato Grosso is the largest safrinha corn producing state in Brazil and adverse weather in that state also impacted the crop, especially the late planted corn in the eastern regions of the state. Conab is estimating the safrinha corn crop in Mato Grosso at 25.9 million tons, which is down 9% from last year. Farmers in Mato Grosso have harvested approximately 25% of their corn crop, which is about the average pace for this time of the year.

Goias is the other large safrinha corn producing state and Conab estimates that the state will produce 6.8 million tons of corn, which would be down 12% compared to last year.