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January 23, 2018

Dry Weather becoming very worrisome in Argentina

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Argentina Soybeans - The situation in Argentina is becoming more complicated. The previously dry areas in far northern Argentina have received rain over the past two weeks and there is a lot more rain in the forecast for this week especially in northeastern Argentina. In contrast, it looks like central and southern Argentina will miss out on the rain as the region gets dryer.

I think the long range forecast looks very worrisome for central and southern Argentina. There is just not much rain in the forecast with above normal temperatures. If this hotter and dryer forecast verifies, my soybean estimate will probably continue to work lower in the weeks ahead.

The soybeans in Argentina are 96.7% planted according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The only areas left to plant are in northern and northwestern Argentina. The Grain Exchange reduced their soybean acreage by 100,000 hectares in their January 11th report to 18.0 million hectares and they indicated in their report last Thursday (January 18) that they may reduce it even more due to dry conditions in western and northwestern Argentina.

The soybean condition in Argentina is rated 0% very poor, 19% poor, 45% fair, 33% good, and 1% very good according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The early planted soybeans are rated a little better than the later planted soybeans. Generally the soybeans in the core production regions are rated highest and the soybeans in northwestern Argentina are rated the lowest. The moisture situation for the soybeans is approximately 2% very dry, 37% poor, 58% favorable, 2% optimum, and 0% wet. Once again, the driest areas of Argentina are in the northwestern part of the country.

The early planted soybeans are generally flowering and setting pods, while the later planted soybeans are generally in vegetative development.

Argentina Corn - The recent dry weather has already done some damage to the early planted corn in eastern Argentina and if this hotter and dryer forecast verifies, there will probably be damage done to the later planted corn as well.

The corn is 91% planted and the only areas left to plant are in northern Argentina where there is still approximately 450,000 hectares left to plant. Northern Argentina was very dry, but they have received rain over about the last two weeks and now some areas of northeastern Argentina may actually be too wet.

The condition of the corn in general is rated approximately 25% very poor, 23% poor, 38% fair, 11% good, and 0% excellent according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Generally the early planted corn is rated better than the later planted corn. The corn crop is highly variable across Argentina. Low yields are being reported for some of the early corn that is currently being harvested in eastern Argentina. The problem was dry weather during December when the crop was pollinating. There are even some reports of corn being chopped for silage instead of grain production in Entre Rios.

In the province of Cordoba during January, some areas registered 7 inches of precipitation while other areas registered only 0.4 inches. There is rain in the forecast for this week, but once again, it is expected to be highly variable. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rates the corn moisture as generally 2% very dry, 30% poor, 65% favorable, 2% optimum, and 0% wet.