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February 21, 2017

2016/17 Brazilian Safrinha Corn 36% Planted

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The full-season corn harvest in southern Brazil is 14% complete compared to 25% last year. The full-season corn yields in Brazil continue to be reported as very good and the 2016/17 full season corn crop is expected to surpass last year's crop.

In Rio Grande do Sul, the full-season corn is 38% harvested, 28% mature and waiting for harvest, 28% filling grain, 3% pollinating, and 3% in vegetative development. Corn yields in the state are generally better than expected with non-irrigated yields in the range of 100 to160 sacks per hectare (92 to 147 bu/ac) and irrigated yields in the range of 200 to 250 sacks per hectare (185 to 230 bu/ac).

The safrinha corn crop in Brazil was 36% planted as of last Thursday compared to 33% last year and 32% average. The safrinha corn planting is now only slightly ahead of last year and the average due to the wet weather that has delayed the soybean harvest.

Mato Grosso - AgRural estimates that farmers in Mato Grosso have planted 54% of their safrinha corn compared to 36% last year. Imea estimated earlier last week that 46% of the safrinha corn has been planted, so both estimates are basically similar. The ideal planting window for safrinha corn in Mato Grosso closed about February 20th. If corn is planted after that date, the risk increases that the corn may not get through the grain filling process before the end of the summer rainy season.

Farmers in Mato Grosso are concerned about the significant decline in corn prices, which is parts of the state are now in the range of R$ 15.00 per sack of approximately $2.20 per bushel.

Parana - Farmers in Parana have planted approximately 25% of their safrinha corn compared to 48% last year and 36% average. Parana is furthest behind in safrinha corn planting just like it is furthest behind in the soybean harvest.

Goias - Farmers in Goias are also planting their safrinha corn as quickly as possible and all the corn should be planted within the ideal window which closes February 20-25. In Jatai, which is located in southwestern Goias, the current corn prices in the region are R$ 21.00 to R$ 22.00 per sack or $3.10 to $3.25 per bushel. At these prices, farmers feel they will need very good corn yields in order to generate a profit on their safrinha corn production.

The safrinha corn crop represents approximately two thirds of Brazil's total corn crop and it is the safrinha corn that goes into the export channels. Brazil's corn exports start in August, they peak in September-October-November and they start to decline in December and January.