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December 11, 2018

Dry Weather in Brazil starting to Worry Soybean Producers

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The recent weather in Brazil has been wet in the northern and northeastern regions and dry in central and southern Brazil. There were heavy rains across sections of northeastern Brazil resulting in localized logistical problems, but the rains also resulted in good soil moisture which could come in handy going forward.

In contrast to northern Brazil, central and southern Brazil was generally dry last week. The dryness extends from southern Mato Grosso into Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Rio Grande do Sul which is just now finishing the soybean planting in the state. Late last week and over the weekend, there were even reports of patchy frost in southern Brazil. It caused some problems for both soybeans and corn, but any damage was localized.

There are areas of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul that have been dry for 2-3 weeks with widespread dryness for the last two weeks. Reports are coming in of poor germination and spotty stands in especially for the later planted soybeans. The forecast is calling for limited additional rainfall this week in southern Brazil, which are needed.

If significant rains do materialize later this week and early next week in the driest areas, then there was probably not much harm done to the Brazilian soybean crop. If the rains are of limited amounts, then I think we need to be more cautious concerning the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop. Soybean planting in Brazil is now 96% compared to 95% last year and 93% for the 5-year average.

Thus far this growing season, it is hard to say if El Nino has had an impact on Brazil's weather. According to most meteorologists in Brazil, El Nino was supposed to result in above normal rainfall in southern Brazil and below normal rainfall in northeastern Brazil. Up until now, it appears to be just the opposite. Maybe the potential impact from El Nino has been pushed forward in Brazil. If that does turn out to be the case, then it might have more of an impact on the safrinha corn in Brazil.