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August 29, 2018

Unexpected Frost in Western Parana Impacted Winter Wheat

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

It has been a cold couple of days in southern Brazil. On Monday morning, the temperatures were lower than what had been forecasted in western and southwestern Parana and frosts were recorded in the region. As a result, there are expected to be some loses in the winter wheat crop.

The wheat crop in the municipality of Toledo for example in western Parana was 20% flowering, 66% filling grain, and 14% maturing as of last Monday. The wheat harvest was actually expected to start in approximately 10-15 days.

As is usually the case when a frost occurs as the crop is maturing, it will take a few days before the extent of the damage is known. Frost also occurred in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, but only 12% of the wheat was flowering when the patchy frost occurred. Parana is the largest wheat producing state in Brazil followed by Rio Grande do Sul and combined, these two states produce more than 90% of Brazil's wheat.

These were very cold temperatures for this time of the year. In fact, farmers in Rio Grande do Sul have already started to plant some of their 2018/19 corn crop.

The frosts are coming on the heels of dry weather in northern Parana that has already impacted the wheat crop. The wheat in western Parana had escaped loses from dry weather, but now the frost has negatively impacted the crop. The advisory firm T & F Agroeconomica had already lowered their estimate of the 2018 wheat crop in Parana by 500,000 tons due to the dry weather. They are now estimating that the production may decline another 100-200,000 tons due to the frost.

In July the Department of Rural Economics (Deral) had already lowered their estimate of the 2018 wheat crop in Parana to 3.12 million tons from 3.36 million in June.