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April 13, 2018

Conab Increases Soybean and Corn Estimates in April Report

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their latest monthly crop report, Conab increased their 2017/18 Brazilian soybean estimate by 1.9 million tons and their 2017/18 Brazilian corn estimate by 1.9 million tons.

For the 2017/18 Brazilian soybean crop, Conab is now estimating the crop at 114.9 million tons, which is 1.9 million tons more than their March estimate. If realized, the 2017/18 Brazilian soybean crop would be .8% larger than last year's crop which totaled 114.0 million tons.

The 2017/18 soybean acreage is now estimated at 35.08 million hectares (86.6 million acres), which is 3.5% more than last growing season. The 2017/18 soybean yield is estimated at 3,276 kg/ha (48.4 bu/ac), which is down 2.6% compared to last year's yield of 3,225 kg/ha (47.7 bu/ac).

For the 2017/18 Brazilian corn crop, Conab is now estimating the crop at 88.6 million tons, which is 1.4 million tons more than the March estimate. Even with this increase, the Brazilian corn production would still be -9.4% compared to last year's crop of 97.8 million tons.

The full-season corn estimate was increased 0.5 million tons from last month to 25.6 million tons, but it is still down 16% compared to last year. The full-season corn acreage is estimated at 5.06 million hectares (12.5 million acres), which is down 7.7% compared to last year. The full-season corn yield is estimated at 5,058 kg/ha (77.9 bu/ac), which is down 9% from last year.

The safrinha corn estimate was increased 0.8 million tons from last month to 63.0 million tons, but it is still down 6.5% compared to last year. The safrinha corn acreage is now estimated at 11.54 million hectares (28.5 million acres), which is down 4.6% compared to last year. The safrinha corn yield is now estimated at 5,458 kg/ha (84.0 bu/ac). I thought it was interesting that Conab left the safrinha corn yield unchanged from last month.

With the current estimates, the safrinha corn crop will account for 71% of Brazil's total corn production.