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April 13, 2017

Brazil Soy Estimate Increased to 110.1 mt, Corn Increased to 91.4 mt

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their latest monthly report released on Tuesday, Conab increased their estimate for both the 2016/17 Brazilian soybean and corn crops. Conab is now estimating the 2016/17 soybean crop at a record 110.1 million tons which is 2.5 million tons more than last month. This represents an increase of 15.4% or 14.7 million tons over last year's production of 95.4 million tons.

The 2016/17 Brazilian soybeans acreage is estimated at 33.71 million hectares (83.26 million acres) or 1.4% more (459,000 hectares) compared to last year. The nationwide Brazilian soybean yield is now estimated at 3,268 kg/ha (47.3 bu/ac), which is 13.9% more than last year's yield of 2,870 kg/ha (41.6 bu/ac).

The three largest soybean producing states in Brazil remain Mato Grosso (30.5 million tons), Parana (18.6 million tons), and Rio Grande do Sul (17.5 million tons). The state of Mato Grosso increased their soybean production in 2016/17 by 17.2% due to much improved yields of 3,273 kg/ha (47.4 bu/ac). Soybean production increased in Parana by 10.3% and Rio Grande do Sul by 8.3%. The biggest increase though was in northeastern Brazil where this year's crop is 75% larger than last year (8.9 million tons in 2016/17 vs. 5.1 million tons in 2015/16). The 2015/16 soybean crop in northeastern Brazil was severely impacted by hot and dry conditions.

The total 2016/17 corn crop in Brazil is now estimated at 91.4 million tons, which is up 2.5 million tons from last month. Brazil's 2016/17 corn production is now 37.5% larger than last year or an increase of 24.9 million tons. The biggest increase this month was for the safrinha corn crop which is now estimated at 61.6 million tons or up 1.9 million tons from last month. The full-season corn crop is estimated at 29.8 million tons or up 0.5 million tons from last month.

Safrinha corn production now represents 67.3% of Brazil's total corn production and the full-season corn crop represents 32.6% of the total.

The four top producing safrinha corn states are Mato Grosso (24.1 million tons), Parana (12.6 million tons), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.7 million tons), and Goias (7.7 million tons). These four states represent 86% of the total safrinha corn production in Brazil.

The safrinha corn crop is still developing and the weather for the next two months will impact the crop, but Conab is factoring in much better yields compared to the drought-plagued crop of last year. Conab is expecting the safrinha corn production in Mato Grosso to increase 69.5%, while in Parana it is expected to increase 13.2%, in Mato Grosso do Sul it is expected to increase 42.8%, and in Goias the increase is expected to be 71.4%.