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April 10, 2018

Rains in Argentina coming too late for most Soybeans

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Lately, there have been more rains in Argentina, but for the bulk of the soybeans, the rains have come too late. The early planted soybeans are 72% mature and 21% harvested, so any rain from this point forward would not make much of a difference. The later planted soybeans are 14% mature, so additional rainfall could still help the later maturing soybeans.

In their latest weekly report, the Buenos Aires Grail Exchange reduced its estimate for the 2017/18 soybean crop by 1.5 million tons to 38.0 million. The current estimate would make the crop 34% smaller than last year. The soybeans are 15.3% harvested as of late last week and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates the nationwide soybean yield thus far at 2,440 kg/ha (36.1 bu/ac) or 32.8% less than last year at this time. Last week's yield was down 1.5 bu/ac compared to the week before.

The harvest pace is ahead of last year due to the rapid dry down caused by the drought. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange commented that the lower yields in some of the core areas prompted them to lower their estimate. There will also be more abandonment than normal especially for the double crop soybeans. The later planted soybeans are worse than the early soybeans.

In the northern core region they estimated the yields thus far at 2,890 kg/ha (42.7 bu/ac) vs 3,910 kg/ha (57.8 bu/ha) last year. In north-central Cordoba the yields thus far are 1,840 kg/ha (27.2 bu/ac) vs 3,650 kg/ha 54.0 bu/ac) last year. In Entre Rios the yields thus far are estimated at 1,180 kg/ha (17.4 bu/ac) vs 2,800 kg/ha (41.4 bu/ac) last year.